This year’s Academy Awards is one of the few I can remember looking forward to, a result of genuinely not knowing who is going to win in some of the top categories. While Argo, it seems, has sealed the Best Picture deal, other high-profile fields are left open for interpretation: Can Amour’s graceful and vulnerable Emmanuelle Riva overpower the spunk and energy of Silver Linings Playbook’s Jennifer Lawrence for Best Actress? Is Ang Lee really going to win another Best Director Oscar for a non-Best Picture-winning film? Will Christoph Waltz pull off a Quentin Tarantino-penned Best Supporting Actor victory for a second straight time, or may the late-surging momentum of Robert De Niro win out in the end?
It’s possible these questions are on my mind simply because I’m not too enthusiastic about the broadcast itself. As someone who found only about a fourth of Ted funny and entertaining, I’m not exactly chomping at the bit to see how Seth MacFarlane will fare as emcee. I’m more excited to see if someone like Michael Haneke — who has spent his whole career making movies that are as Oscar-friendly as Django Unchained is racially tame — will grace the podium of the Dolby Theatre. I’m excited, too, to see Daniel Day-Lewis give another acceptance speech: his on-stage eloquence over the years at these events has provided sterling examples of the tiny moments that are worth the grind of long commercial-breaks and disposable stand-up routines. Check out my entire list of predictions below, including who will win, who should win and who should have been nominated.
Film Editing
Argo (William Goldenberg)
Life of Pi (Tim Squyres)
Lincoln (Michael Kahn)
Silver Linings Playbook (Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers)
Zero Dark Thirty – Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg
Veteran workhorse William Goldenberg — a frequent Michael Mann collaborator, and a previous nominee for The Insider and Seabiscuit — seems poised to take home his first Oscar this year. A double-nominee for Argo and Zero Dark Thirty, it’ll likely be the former film that will lift him to victory: the situation may have seemed reversed a month or two ago (as with Mark Boal’s original screenplay for Zero Dark Thirty), but the controversy surrounding Kathryn Bigelow’s film has made Argo the much safer choice. This branch pulled an upset last year, giving their trophy to The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo’s Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter (their second trophy in two years, after The Social Network), but I expect them to reward the likely Best Picture winner, Argo, which is often a classic example of how to cut a sequence for sustained suspense and tension.
Who Will Win: Argo (William Goldenberg)
Who Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty (Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Amour (Nadine Muse and Monika Willi), The Master (Peter McNulty and Leslie Jones), Magic Mike (Steven Soderbergh)
Cinematography
Anna Karenina (Seamus McGarvey)
Django Unchained (Robert Richardson)
Life of Pi (Claudio Miranda)
Lincoln (Janusz Kaminski)
Skyfall (Roger Deakins)
Skyfall’s Roger Deakins, who is still famously without an Oscar, earned some much-needed buzz with his recent citation from the American Society of Cinematographers, but Claudio Miranda’s extravagant visual stylings on Life of Pi still seems the likeliest victor to me. Miranda won at the BAFTAs, and, with a total of 11 nominations, Life of Pi is clearly respected throughout the Academy. This is but one of the below-the-line categories that it has a strong shot at winning. My personal preference here is Janusz Kaminski, Steven Spielberg’s regular cinematographer. The command of Tony Kushner’s verbally intricate script has led many to label Lincoln “stagy” and “talky,” but if you watch the film a second time, the quality of Kaminski’s work — constantly allowing beams of light to pour into the film’s dusty backrooms — becomes instantly obvious. Deakins provides Skyfall with a couple of enormous highs, but his contribution is less consistently informative.
Who Will Win: Life of Pi (Claudio Miranda)
Who Should Win: Lincoln (Janusz Kaminski)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Beasts of the Southern Wild (Ben Richardson), The Master (Mihai Malaimare Jr.), Zero Dark Thirty (Greig Fraser)
Visual Effects
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White)
Life of Pi (Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott)
Marvel’s The Avengers (Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick)
Prometheus (Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill)
Snow White and the Huntsman (Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson)
Above all else, everyone basically agrees that Ang Lee’s Life of Pi is a juggernaut of technical wizardry, and I’m predicting the branch to follow in their footsteps from last year (when they awarded Hugo) and recognize another auteur’s foray into 3D technology. I think my own leanings would favor Prometheus just a tad: it’s been almost a full year since I saw the film, but its electronic glow is still burning in my mind, and the C-section sequence is a next-level feat of body-altering rendering. A nomination for Cloud Atlas, meanwhile, would have been an encouraging thing to see: I’m not crazy about the film, but it certainly paints a more original visual-effects canvas than The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, the look of which we’ve all seen three times before.
Who Will Win: Life of Pi (Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott)
Who Should Win: Prometheus (Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Cloud Atlas
Sound Editing
Argo (Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn)
Django Unchained (Wylie Stateman)
Life of Pi (Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton)
Skyfall (Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers)
Zero Dark Thirty (Paul N.J. Ottosson)
This one could go a variety of ways. My reason for picking Life of Pi is that it’s the most technologically pumped-up production of the five, likely to make its presence known in a few below-the-line categories. But the other nominees, starting with Best Picture frontrunner Argo, shouldn’t be counted out in the slightest. Paul N.J. Ottosson, for his part, won two Oscars for The Hurt Locker (including one in this category), and his stirring work in Kathryn Bigelow’s new film is on the same level. Skyfall and Django Unchained, meanwhile, both have their own share of sonic dexterity. It would’ve been neat to see Best Picture nominee Beasts of the Southern Wild show up here — as beautifully photographed as the film is, the sound work is just as crucial in bringing the Bathtub to vibrant life — but perhaps its small-scale nature kept it at arm’s length.
Who Will Win: Life of Pi (Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton)
Who Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty (Paul N.J. Ottosson)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Grey
Sound Mixing
Argo (John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose Antonio Garcia)
Les Misérables (Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes)
Life of Pi (Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and Drew Kunin)
Lincoln (Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Ronald Judkins)
Skyfall (Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson)
It’d be unwise to bet against Les Misérables here: the film has essentially built an entire campaign around its live-singing approach, and, without a nomination in the Best Sound Editing field, this is the only place for sound-design workers to step up for the film. And, indeed, it’s as deserving as any of the others in this category, effectively mixing the often-fragile voices of its performers with ambient noise. There were times when it grated on me, though, and I can’t say the same for Skyfall, which is sonically crisp and cogent throughout. However, this is yet another category in which the more intriguing contenders were left on the outside: I’m not sure any of these five mixes can hold a candle to the icy-harsh winds of The Grey, the off-kilter rhythms of The Master, or the piercing bullets of Zero Dark Thirty.
Who Will Win: Les Misérables (Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes)
Who Should Win: Skyfall (Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: The Grey, The Master, Zero Dark Thirty
Music (Original Song)
“Before My Time” from Chasing Ice (Music and Lyric by J. Ralph)
“Everybody Needs A Best Friend” from Ted (Music by Walter Murphy; Lyric by Seth MacFarlane)
“Pi’s Lullaby” from Life of Pi (Music by Mychael Danna; Lyric by Bombay Jayashri)
“Skyfall” from Skyfall (Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth)
“Suddenly” from Les Misérables (Music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil)
I’ll be curious to see how Sam Mendes’ global phenomenon fares on Oscar night: with five total nominations, Skyfall’s massive success (critical adoration, over $1 billion in worldwide grosses) didn’t go unnoticed by the Academy, and it’s a possible winner in a number of the below-the-line fields for which it was nominated. This one, however, seems like a no-brainer victory, and it’s hard to argue with how pervasively Adele’s title-song number has become aligned with the film as a whole. I don’t quite get the hoopla, if I’m being honest (come on, you know those lyrics are silly), but it says something about my connection with this category that my favorite original song of the year — Kylie Minogue’s “Who Were We” from Holy Motors — wasn’t even ruled eligible for contention.
Who Will Win: “Skyfall” from Skyfall
Who Should Win: “Skyfall” from Skyfall
Who Should Have Been Nominated: “Who Were We” from Holy Motors
Music (Original Score)
Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli)
Argo (Alexandre Desplat)
Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)
Lincoln (John Williams)
Skyfall (Thomas Newman)
Unfortunately, I don’t find this crop of nominees interesting in the slightest: John Williams’s quietly beautiful Lincoln score is the only one that’s been kicking around in my head since seeing the film. I certainly haven’t thought twice about Mychael Danna’s work on Ang Lee’s technologically impressive Yann Martel adaptation, but, considering the Canadian’s accomplished resumé — The Ice Storm (another Lee film), The Sweet Hereafter, Moneyball — it’d be rewarding to finally see him take home an Oscar. It’s still upsetting, though, that this branch failed to nominate some of the more exciting in-contention scores: the fine Argo score, for instance, was hardly Alexandre Desplat’s best work of the year, while the absence of the magically composed Beasts of the Southern Wild is particularly mysterious, considering the film’s love in several higher-tier categories.
Who Will Win: Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)
Who Should Win: Lincoln (John Williams)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Beasts of the Southern Wild (Dan Romer, Benh Zeitlin), The Master (Jonny Greenwood), Zero Dark Thirty (Alexandre Desplat)
Costume Design
Anna Karenina (Jacqueline Durran)
Les Misérables (Paco Delgado)
Lincoln (Joanna Johnston)
Mirror Mirror (Eiko Ishioka)
Snow White and the Huntsman (Colleen Atwood)
Joe Wright’s aesthetically forward-thinking Leo Tolstoy adaptation mostly disappeared as the season went along, gaining a reputation as an ambitious-but-hollow attempt, though the remarkable costuming of the film was justly remembered by Academy voters. Jacqueline Durran should’ve won this category last year for the evocatively dusty 1970s threads she created for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy — stunningly, she wasn’t even nominated — but it’s likely that she’ll get her deserved due this time around. The late Eiko Ishioka, who won an Oscar two decades ago for Francis Ford Coppola’s Dracula, may have a slight chance at spoiling things.
Who Will Win: Anna Karenina (Jacqueline Durran)
Who Should Win: Anna Karenina (Jacqueline Durran)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Magic Mike, The Master
Makeup and Hairstyling
Hitchcock (Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane)
Les Misérables (Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell)
I don’t particularly like any of these films, but the work done on Les Misérables was the only one that didn’t actively pull me out of the film. It may be off-puttingly grungy, but it’s at least of a piece with the film’s overall aesthetic. You could perhaps say the same thing for Hitchcock, I suppose, considering that the film is often striving for a light-comic tone, but the job done on Anthony Hopkins was one of the main reasons I found the role more caricature than character. As for The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, the makeup is just one of the many artistic cues that made me want to turn my eyes away from the screen. Nods for Holy Motors (which, after all, does contain entire scenes of a character applying makeup) and The Grey (which hauntingly captures ice- and snow-filled beards) would’ve been nice surprises.
Who Will Win: Les Misérables (Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell)
Who Should Win: Les Misérables (Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: The Grey, Holy Motors
Production Design
Anna Karenina (Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Production Design: Dan Hennah; Set Decoration: Ra Vincent and Simon Bright)
Les Misérables (Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Anna Lynch-Robinson)
Life of Pi (Production Design: David Gropman; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock)
Lincoln (Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson)
The formerly-named Best Art Direction category has a new moniker this year, and it’s a logical one, seeing as how the production designers have always been mentioned alongside the set decorators in this field. As with Best Costume Design, I’m pegging Joe Wright’s film as the favorite: extravagance often spells victory in both situations. That said, I could still see things going a few different ways. Lincoln, handsomely mounted though it may be in nearly every respect, might be a tad muted to pull off a win, while The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey has long been suffering (at least critically and awards-wise) with been-there-done-that syndrome. But Les Misérables and Life of Pi could both make strong cases here: their Best Picture nominations imply more widespread admiration than there is for Anna Karenina, and that could very well do the trick for one of them.
Who Will Win: Anna Karenina (Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer)
Who Should Win: Anna Karenina (Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Cloud Atlas, The Impossible, The Master
Documentary Short Subject
Inocente (Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine)
Kings Point (Sari Gilman and Jedd Wider)
Mondays at Racine (Cynthia Wade and Robin Honan)
Open Heart (Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd Stern)
Redemption (Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill)
Clocking in between 30 and 40 minutes each, the Documentary Short Subject nominees use their extra time to share emotionally weighty topics all deserving of a win. The goal here is to expose the uninitiated to a subject they wouldn’t necessarily know or care about and this eclectic mix did just that for me. I loved the personal stories of young Inocente’s journey from homeless immigrant to rising artist (Inocente), the many “canners” trying to survive the faltering economy in NYC (Redemption), and the harrowing experiences of Cambria and Linda coping with chemo and cancer (Mondays at Racine). Unfortunately, however, I feel the Academy will bite on the heartstring tug of Open Heart and its call to action for the Western world to help a great cause in Africa. To me its message was way too commercialized and ultimately rendered hollow unlike the rest. – Jared M.
Who Will Win: Open Heart (Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd Stern)
Who Should Win: Mondays at Racine (Cynthia Wade and Robin Honan)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Asian Gangs (Lewis Bennett and Calum MacLeod), Let the Daylight into the Swamp (Jeffrey St. Jules)
Short Film (Animated)
Adam and Dog (Minkyu Lee)
Fresh Guacamole (PES)
Head over Heels (Timothy Reckart and Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly)
Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare (David Silverman)
Paperman (John Kahrs)
Out of all the Animated Short nominees Fresh Guacamole is still the selection that puts a smile on my face. A viral video by a director who has made a following for himself online and via Showtime, its originality is well-deserving of the praise. I don’t, however, see it winning the prize despite Logorama’s victory in 2010 launching from a similar path. No, in order to earn the trophy this year you’re going to have to go up against a juggernaut in Disney Animation. On a pure aesthetic level I can see Adam and Dog stealing the crown, but then I remember the gorgeous hand-drawn animation mixed with charcoal textured flourishes courtesy of John Kahrs’ gem Paperman and can’t see it losing. The film harkens back to Disney’s heyday of heart, love, humor and a fair share of magic and I think the Academy will agree. – Jared M.
Who Will Win: Paperman
Who Should Win: Paperman
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Daffy’s Rhaspsody (Matthew O’Callaghan), Bydlo (Patrick Bouchard)
Short Film (Live Action)
Asad (Bryan Buckley and Mino Jarjoura)
Buzkashi Boys (Sam French and Ariel Nasr)
Curfew (Shawn Christensen)
Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw) (Tom Van Avermaet and Ellen De Waele)
Henry (Yan England)
If I were to come up with one adjective for this year’s Live Action Short nominees it would be depressing. From Alzheimer’s to suicide to lost love to Third World political strife and tragedy, there is very little to laugh at despite Shawn Christensen’s likeable infusion of comedy. There is some real inventive filmmaking at work in Death of a Shadow and the stunning transitions of Henry, but I believe it really comes down to Somalia vs. Afghanistan. Both wonderful depictions of humanity’s strength and our desire to live free and unencumbered by our lineage or surroundings, I have a sinking feeling Bryan Buckley has a leg up due to his notoriety with Hungry Man Productions. An Oscar would go nice next to his Cannes Lions. If there was one that stuck with me after the credits, though—make that two with Henry—it’s Buzkashi Boys’ universal tome on friendship and sacrifice in the Middle East. That’s where my vote would have gone. – Jared M.
Who Will Win: Asad (Bryan Buckley and Mino Jarjoura)
Who Should Win: Buzkashi Boys (Sam French and Ariel Nasr)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: The Worst Day Ever (Sophie Jarvis), Sullivan’s Applicant (Jeanne Leblanc), Faillir [Struggle] (Sophie Dupuis)
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Argo (Chris Terrio)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin)
Life of Pi (David Magee)
Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
It’s taken some time for Chris Terrio’s Argo screenplay to match the level of recognition of the film overall, but with recent wins at the USC Scripter Awards and with the Writers Guild of America, an Oscar feels like the next logical step in the progression. It’s a respectable piece of writing — more memorable for its dialogue than its character work, for my money — but it feels slightly outmatched by some of the other nominees. Though I found David Magee’s Life of Pi script generally inconsistent (especially in the opening act), it’s a challenging feat of adaptation regardless. The same goes for Beasts of the Southern Wild: based on a stage play (Lucy Alibar’s Juicy and Delicious), it balances environmental acuity and Terrence Malick-like philosophizing with an energetically cinematic ear. The best of them all, however, has always been Tony Kushner’s rigorously detailed Lincoln: the Pulitzer Prize-winning writer would make a handsome winner, though the script’s distinguishing wordiness may keep voters from putting it at the top of their ballots.
Who Will Win: Argo (Chris Terrio)
Who Should Win: Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: The Grey (Joe Carnahan and Ian Mackenzie Jeffers), On the Road (Jose Rivera), The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Stephen Chbosky)
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Amour (Michael Haneke)
Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
Flight (John Gatins)
Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola)
Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)
Django Unchained could very well be the favorite here, as Quentin Tarantino’s controversial (though highly successful) revenge story has accumulated high-profile wins at the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs and the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards. He has only won one Oscar to date – for his writing job on Pulp Fiction – but the haul of nominations for both Django and his previous Inglourious Basterds suggests a newfound respect within the Academy for the American rebel. Nevertheless, I’m banking on Amour and Michael Haneke here; the film feels too respected and admired to be limited to a single victory on the night, and this often forward-thinking branch would make for a sensible show of support. I was over the moon when John Gatins stole a spot here — Whip Whitaker is the most complete, rounded protagonist in the category, I think — but it’s hard to argue with the frankness with which Amour confronts its subject.
Who Will Win: Amour (Michael Haneke)
Who Should Win: Flight (John Gatins)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master), Reid Carolin (Magic Mike), Rian Johnson (Looper)
Documentary Feature
5 Broken Cameras (Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi)
The Gatekeepers (Dror Moreh, Philippa Kowarsky and Estelle Fialon)
How to Survive a Plague (David France and Howard Gertler)
The Invisible War (Kirby Dick and Amy Ziering)
Searching for Sugar Man (Malik Bendjelloul and Simon Chinn)
I saw quite a few docs in 2012, but virtually none of them clicked enough with the Academy to secure a nomination. Kudos to the branch for at least shortlisting valuable titles like Jafar Panahi’s This Is Not a Film, The House I Live In and The Imposter, though they made a big oversight in not even bringing The Queen of Versailles — a fascinatingly tangled encapsulation of contemporary economic themes in America — to this fifteen-film phase. Nevertheless, as crowded as the field was this year with worthy achievements, Malik Bendjelloul’s Searching for Sugar Man, an uplifting story about discovering a lost talent, has been the leader of the pack for as long as I can remember.
Who Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man
Who Should Win: Searching for Sugar Man
Who Should Have Been Nominated: This is Not a Film, The Imposter, Samsara, The Queen of Versailles
Foreign Language Film
Amour (Austria)
Kon-Tiki (Norway)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
War Witch (Canada)
With five total nominations — including Best Picture and Best Director — Michael Haneke’s Palme d’Or-winning Amour is arguably an even bigger favorite in this category than last year’s widely-revered A Separation. Haneke’s work is typically far too austere and self-reflexively intellectual for the Academy’s tastes, but the bone-chilling intimacy of Amour — displayed in the filmmaker’s customarily long-take, stationary-camera aesthetic — made for something even they couldn’t ignore. Here’s hoping, however, that Amour’s success does not limit people from recognizing what a strong year it was for this category on the whole. From No and War Witch to shortlisted-but-not-nominated titles like Beyond the Hills and Sister, this year’s slate was full of noteworthy accomplishments.
Who Will Win: Amour
Who Should Win: Amour
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Beyond the Hills, Holy Motors, Sister
Animated Feature Film
Brave (Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman)
Frankenweenie (Tim Burton)
ParaNorman (Sam Fell and Chris Butler)
The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Peter Lord)
Wreck-It Ralph (Rich Moore)
Several of the nominees here have a shot at winning, I think. Count me as a member of the Brave-is-a-mess contingent, but it was still fairly well-reviewed when it was released in June, and, of course, it boasts the ever-powerful Pixar label. Were I judging solely on aesthetic criteria, I think Frankenweenie and ParaNorman would be considered the finest achievements. Neither film, for my money, really lands on a compelling narrative when it’s all said and done, but their implementation of stop-motion animation (coupled with black-and-white beauty in the former) is top-notch. Nevertheless, I am predicting Wreck-It Ralph, which was a massive commercial hit — over $400 million worldwide — as well as a critical favorite. It’s a nice film with some interesting thematic ideas about the gaming universe, and I think that timeliness will help carry it to victory.
Who Will Win: Wreck-It Ralph
Who Should Win: Wreck-It Ralph
Who Should Have Been Nominated: The Secret World of Arrietty
Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams in The Master
Sally Field in Lincoln
Anne Hathaway in Les Misérables
Helen Hunt in The Sessions
Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook
Anne Hathaway’s command over this category has basically been sealed since Tom Hooper’s divisive film was first screened in New York City. It is a testament to the force of her work that a performance so brief — not to mention how early most of it happens in the nearly-three-hour film — has struck such a universal chord. In retrospect, the combination of Hooper’s nitty-gritty close-up and Hathaway’s ability to belt out “I Dreamed a Dream” within a single take makes for an obvious front-runner. For me, there’s much more nuance and range in Helen Hunt’s sensitive work in The Sessions — which itself probably should’ve been cited in the Best Actress category — but it’s satisfying nonetheless to see a diverse talent like Hathaway getting an early-career boon.
Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)
Who Should Win: Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Emily Blunt (Looper), Isabelle Huppert (Amour)
Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin in Argo
Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master
Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln
Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained
This is not a category I’m all that confident in, mostly because Christoph Waltz, seemingly the on-paper favorite (he won at the Globes and the BAFTAs), won this exact award for a Quentin Tarantino film three years ago. That’s not meant to imply that his work is derivative — he’s comfortably my second favorite of the nominees, and I even think his role qualifies him more for a Best Actor bid — but I do wonder if some voters will hesitate before checking off his name and think, “Hey, didn’t we just do this?” Tommy Lee Jones, too, has felt like a powerful candidate since Lincoln was first screened: though his campaign hasn’t quite caught fire (his demeanor at the Globes sure didn’t help matters). He’s absolutely one of the major talking points of Steven Spielberg’s film. Silver Linings Playbook, meanwhile, is loved throughout the Academy (it received nods in all four acting categories), making Robert De Niro — in his first Best Supporting Actor nod since The Godfather: Part II role that won him a trophy — another possibility. I even find myself wondering if the magnitude of Philip Seymour Hoffman’s role — like Waltz, I think he has Best Actor-like amounts of screen time — could earn him some support.
Who Will Win: Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
Who Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Jason Clarke (Zero Dark Thirty), Garrett Hedlund (On the Road), Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva in Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts in The Impossible
If you told me in September that Jennifer Lawrence would be winning the Best Actress Oscar for her sharp turn in Silver Linings Playbook, I wouldn’t have questioned it. She is still predominantly in the picture — many will tell you she remains the frontrunner — but the subsequent arrival of Zero Dark Thirty and the crossover success of Amour has clouded the picture. A Lawrence win, like one for Robert De Niro, wouldn’t surprise me, but, in a passion-play prediction, I’m going with Emmanuelle Riva here, who will be turning 86 on Oscar night, and who gives one of the year’s most lasting performances in Michael Haneke’s unforgettable film. Jessica Chastain looks like she’s in third-place, if only because the controversy surrounding Zero Dark Thirty has turned the film into such a hot-topic, and not always in a beneficial way.
Who Will Win: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Who Should Win: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone), Rosemarie DeWitt (Your Sister’s Sister), Meryl Streep (Hope Springs)
Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln
Hugh Jackman in Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix in The Master
Denzel Washington in Flight
When the dust was still settling around Lincoln, I found myself wondering if Daniel Day-Lewis’ long-time success at the Academy Awards — two Best Actor wins, plus three other nominations — would keep him from becoming the unchallenged favorite in the field. Would, for example, someone like Joaquin Phoenix, who has been nominated twice before (Gladiator, Walk the Line), finally catapult to the front of the pack for an aggressive, unhinged, undeniable performance? The season, however, has gone down the more predictable path, with Day-Lewis picking up almost every award in his path — a domination that would be more of a bother if it weren’t so richly deserved. I personally keep going back to what Denzel Washington communicated in Flight — the only role here from an original screenplay-nominated film — but Day-Lewis’ Lincoln is indeed its own immaculately subtle achievement.
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Who Should Win: Denzel Washington (Flight)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour), Denis Lavant (Holy Motors), Liam Neeson (The Grey)
Directing
Amour (Michael Haneke)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Benh Zeitlin)
Life of Pi (Ang Lee)
Lincoln (Steven Spielberg)
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
Perhaps the category I’m most fascinated to see play out. I have little-to-no confidence in my prediction, and I think that each of the nominees — save for new-kid-on-the-block Benh Zeitlin — has a shot at winning. David O. Russell (The Fighter), for his part, has made two Academy favorites in a row, and, in a year when the director of the Best Picture frontrunner is absent from the Best Director slate, voters may be willing to gloss over Russell’s shoddy public image and reward him. Michael Haneke might be a more severe longshot, but I’m already predicting his Amour to win Best Foreign Language Film, Best Original Screenplay and Best Actress: why shouldn’t I think it has a fighting chance here? Ang Lee, meanwhile, though having won recently for Brokeback Mountain, has made a film that the entire Academy has fallen for, and it’s possible that many directors will see his work as the main reason why Yann Martel’s novel was even able to be brought to cinematic life in the first place. So why, then, am I going with Lincoln’s Steven Spielberg? Because his is a household name, because it’s a film that people respect and admire and because I didn’t feel like flipping any more coins.
Who Will Win: Lincoln (Steven Spielberg)
Who Should Win: Amour (Michael Haneke)
Who Should Have Been Nominated: The Grey (Joe Carnahan), The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson), Zero Dark Thirty (Kathryn Bigelow)
Best Picture
Amour (Margaret Menegoz, Stefan Arndt, Veit Heiduschka and Michael Katz)
Argo (Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck and George Clooney)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Dan Janvey, Josh Penn and Michael Gottwald)
Django Unchained (Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin and Pilar Savone)
Les Misérables (Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward and Cameron Mackintosh)
Life of Pi (Gil Netter, Ang Lee and David Womark)
Lincoln (Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy)
Silver Linings Playbook (Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen and Jonathan Gordon)
Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow and Megan Ellison)
Argo’s Best Picture chances were thrown into question when Ben Affleck was rather shockingly snubbed in the Best Director category (in favor of outside-the-box choices like Michael Haneke and Benh Zeitlin). But the days and weeks since nomination morning has reaffirmed Argo’s status as the year’s most well-liked, universally agreed-upon title. With major wins at the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards, the Golden Globes, the SAGs, the BAFTAs, as well as guild victories with both the PGA and the WGA (not to Mention an Affleck win at the DGA awards), Affleck’s third film has been maintaining its momentum on a seemingly unstoppable basis. The film’s far from my favorite in the category, which admirably includes films as good and diverse as Lincoln, Amour, Zero Dark Thirty and Beasts of the Southern Wild, but I do think it is a genuinely entertaining, skillfully-crafted crowdpleaser, and I’ve come to enjoy the sight of Affleck at the podium quite a bit over the course of this roller-coaster season.
Who Will Win: Argo
Who Should Win: Lincoln
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Flight, The Grey, The Master
To wrap it up, check out my complete predictions below in all 24 categories:
Best Picture: Argo
Best Directing Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
Actor in a Leading Role: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Actress in a Leading Role: Emmanuelle Riva for Amour
Actor in a Supporting Role: Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained
Actress in a Supporting Role: Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables
Animated Feature Film: Wreck-It Ralph
Original Screenplay: Amour, Michael Haneke
Adapted Screenplay: Argo, Chris Terrio
Foreign-Language Film: Amour
Original Score: Life of Pi
Original Song: Skyfall
Production Design: Anna Karenina
Cinematography: Life of Pi
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Documentary Feature: Searching for a Sugar Man
Documentary Short Subject: Open Heart
Film Editing: Argo
Makeup & Hairstyling: Les Misérables
Animated Short Film: Paperman
Live-Action Short Film: Asad
Sound Editing: Life of Pi
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
What are your Oscar predictions? What should have been nominated?