Here is one category that might just go down to the wire. Though Christian Bale has the award circuit momentum compounded with the “overdue” vote, Geoffery Rush is riding the wave of success for The King’s Speech. This is a two-horse race with the other nominees off in the distance looking for an upset.
Bale gave one of the best performances of his career, playing the disillusioned, crack-addicted brother to Mark Wahlberg’s Mickey Ward in The Fighter. And the critics noticed; he has had a prominent if not unanimous award season, taking the prize from both the Golden Globes and the SAG, along with a slew of critic society awards.
He meets a strong contender in Geoffery Rush, however. Rush, who just took home the award from the BAFTAs, is going to catch enormous momentum based solely on the movie in which he played. The King’s Speech is poised to be the top vote-getter of the whole ceremony, which will certainly earn him some votes that would otherwise have gone to Bale. Because the BAFTAs are obviously Brit-centric, it is difficult to say whether he won there because of his nationality or a true shift in opinion, but it certainly helps his case.
There is only one plausible upset contingency that is viable. For fear of a very deserving movie getting shut-out entirely, Mark Ruffalo could earn some timely votes. Early in the season it looked like The Kids Are Alright was going to carry substantial support for the acting awards, but that has since dwindled dramatically, and it could easily go away empty-handed. If voters notice this, they may shift their support toward Ruffalo. And if the Rush and Bale camps cancel each other out, Ruffalo may just walk away with it. It’s a long shot, but a possibility worth mentioning.
Though John Hawkes (Winters Bone) and Jeremy Renner (The Town) are both deserving of nominations, it’s the best they are going to do. They will not factor in to this race. Renner has now come close two years in a row (recall his surprise nomination last year for The Hurt Locker) and he will get his turn in the coming years.
If you were to lay your money down, I’d say go with Christian Bale. He’s got the prominent awards under his belt already, and I am not sure if the BAFTA is enough to carry Rush. But like I said, The King’s Speech might be poised to take home a basket of trophies, which might as well include this one. If you sought a long-shot sleeper, go with Ruffalo but it is just that: a long shot. I really see Christian Bale taking home his first well-deserved Oscar.
Will win: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Should win: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Should have been nominated: Matt Damon (True Grit)
Who is your pick for best supporting actor?