2011 marks the second year seeing the return of ten expanded best picture slots. Just as we had The Hurt Locker and Avatar fighting down to the wire last year, there are two major contenders again. David Fincher‘s The Social Network is in a heated match with Tom Hooper‘s The King’s Speech to take the coveted statue. Going with the notion that Best Director nominees match with the five strongest Best Picture nominations, The Fighter, True Grit and Black Swan are the next strongest in the running. Take a look at all the nominations below as we dive into each of their chances.
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
Inception
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
On the fringe of securing a nomination was Debra Granik‘s Winter’s Bone. Vying for that virtual 10th spot with Ben Affleck‘s The Town, this Sundance winner snuck in. While most of the buzz surrounding the modern noir stems from Jennifer Lawrence‘s Oscar-nominated performance, Academy Award voters liked the drama enough to include it in the race. While it has the least chance of winning, the underdog story is something to admire.
The Kids Are All Right, another Sundance debut, has always been an actors showcase more so than a serious BP candidate. With Annette Bening and Mark Ruffalo each nabbing acting nominations, and the former being a strong contender, Lisa Cholodenko should be proud of her small drama. Her Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical can be attributed to lack of competition, and shouldn’t be thought more of. It may be the only nominee shot completely in Los Angeles, but wouldn’t expect a Best Picture win here.
Danny Boyle is back in the running this year, after his Slumdog Millionaire won the 2009 Best Picture award. Like the previously two mentioned films, this is more of an acting vehicle for our lead James Franco. Numerous reports of Academy voters being put-off by the arm severing, mixed with the disappointing box office, even prompted Fox Searchlight to launch a campaign of convincing. I wouldn’t bet on repeat success for Boyle this year.
There was talk during release that Toy Story 3 may be the first animated film to win Best Picture. I attribute the notion to the fact it was not only the first genuinely good summer film, but also one of the best-reviewed films of all-time. While it is certainly a lock for Best Animated Film, the Best Picture buzz has shifted to the rest of these top contenders. You’ll have your chance Pixar, but not this year.
Much like Toy Story 3, Inception was a pinnacle in the summer drought. While Best Picture talk was rampant during release, the fact that Christopher Nolan was snubbed from a directing nomination should be persuasion enough that this one is out of the running. The technical accomplishments will certainly be awarded, but I wouldn’t expect much beyond that.
As we move into the true contenders, Darren Aronofsky‘s Black Swan is something of a miracle. His small-budget ballerina horror film just crossed $200 million worldwide and Natalie Portman is front runner for Best Actress. While he has a stronger chance of nabbing Best Director, a surprise Best Picture win is unlikely, but not completely preposterous.
True Grit is perhaps the most “American” film out of the bunch, celebrating the rare Western genre with style and skill. The Coens were recently rewarded for No Country For Old Men, so it may be wishful thinking they will see repeat success. The remake also seems to be a film everyone likes, but not a top favorite, as we can see in the lack of guild and critic attention.
The Fighter will definitely see recognition for Christian Bale‘s supporting performance and most likely Melissa Leo, but unless our top two contenders split votes, it will have to mirror the underdog story of the film to nab the top award. Instead of simply a sports drama, David O. Russell crafted a film that can be appreciated by all audiences, improving its chances, but not guaranteeing anything.
The Social Network has been king of the race since soon after its debut. David Fincher‘s “Facebook movie” ended up being much more than just that, as it went on to acquire nearly every single critics award and earn considerable box-office acclaim. While that film about a stuttering king has brought it down from its pedestal, don’t underestimate the power this one holds.
The King’s Speech is the perfect Oscar film; easy to view and digest, completely inoffensive (even more so now), a performance from the top acting contender, and an inspirational finale. Nearly sweeping the guild awards has now slotted this Weinstein production to the top spot. While I personally think its win will mirror a Shakespeare In Love over Saving Private Ryan disappointment, it is impossible to deny the Academy’s history of choosing the familiar.
What will win: The King’s Speech
What should win: The Social Network
What should have been nominated: Exit Through The Gift Shop
Who do you think will take home the Best Picture Oscar?