Even though films like Terrence Malick‘s The Tree of Life, J.J. Abrams‘ Super 8 and Kelly Reichardt‘s Meek’s Cutoff are close on the horizon, it is far too early to legitimately discuss the Oscar contenders for the upcoming year. It is just about the right time, though, to simply speculate on how the Academy will receive this year’s slate of potential nominees, based on their past recognitions and snubs. We’ve already given you all the films we’re anticipating this year, but let’s narrow down the possible Oscar contenders.
This is a year that will bring us the next film from Jason Reitman, Young Adult, whose previous two films both received nominations in the categories of Best Picture, Best Director and Best Screenplay – one original (Juno) and one adapted (Up in the Air). We’ll also get The Descendants, Alexander Payne‘s long-awaited follow-up to Sideways, which will star George Clooney in a role that has Best Actor written all over it. And, speaking of long-awaited projects, Michael Lewis’ Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game will finally see the big screen in an adaption starring Brad Pitt and directed by Bennet Miller (Capote).
By combining knowledge of recent Oscar nominees with my gut instinct, I have put together what I think is a very logical group of predictions. While there’s no way to know where we’ll be at the end of this cinematic year, this process, while somewhat arduous, is nevertheless quite rewarding, because it accents how much we have to look forward to in 2011.
BEST PICTURE
- Young Adult
- The Descendants
- The Tree of Life
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
- J. Edgar
- Hugo Cabret
- War Horse
- A Dangerous Method
- The Ides of March
- One Day
- Other Contenders: The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn, Carnage, Cars 2, Contagion, Drive, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Larry Crowne, Meek’s Cutoff, Melancholia, Moneyball, Rampart, The Rum Diary, Shame, The Skin I Live In, Super 8, We Bought a Zoo, We Need To Talk About Kevin, Win Win
BEST DIRECTOR
- Jason Reitman (Young Adult)
- David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
- Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
- Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
- Steven Spielberg (War Horse)
Other Contenders: Steven Spielberg (The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn), Steven Soderbergh (Contagion), David Cronenberg (A Dangerous Method), Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive), Martin Scorsese (Hugo Cabret), George Clooney (The Ides of March), Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar), Lars von Trier (Melancholia), Bennett Miller (Moneyball), Oren Moverman (Rampart), Steven McQueen (Shame), Lone Scherfig (One Day), Pedro Almodovar (The Skin I Live In), J. J. Abrams (Super 8), Francis Ford Coppola (Twixt Now and Sunrise), , Cameron Crowe (We Bought a Zoo)
BEST ACTOR
- George Clooney (The Descendants)
- Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
- Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life)
- Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)
- Matt Damon (We Bought a Zoo)
Other Contenders: Mel Gibson (The Beaver), Ryan Gosling (Drive), Daniel Craig (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), George Clooney (The Ides of March), Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March), Tom Hanks (Larry Crowne), Brad Pitt (Moneyball), Jim Sturgess (One Day), Woody Harrelson (Rampart), Michael Fassbender (A Dangerous Method, Shame), Johnny Depp (The Rum Diary), Antonio Banderas (The Skin I Live In), Peter Mullan (Tyrannosaur),
BEST ACTRESS
- Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
- Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
- Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
- Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
- Anne Hathaway (One Day)
Other Contenders: Jodie Foster (The Beaver), Emma Stone (The Help), Mia Wasikowska (Jane Eyre), Michelle Williams (Meek’s Cutoff), Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia), Charlotte Gainsbourg (Melancholia), Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn), Carey Mulligan (Shame), Jessica Chastain (Take Shelter), Olivia Colman (Tyrannosaur), Scarlett Johansson (We Bought a Zoo), Abbie Cornish (W.E)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Sean Penn (The Tree of Life)
- Vincent Cassel (A Dangerous Method)
- Philip Seymour Hoffman (Moneyball)
- Armie Hammer (J. Edgar)
- Christopher Plummer (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Other Contenders: Jude Law (Contagion), Asa Butterfield (Hugo Cabret), Ben Kingsley (Hugo Cabret), Paul Giamatti (The Ides of March), Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Ides of March), Josh Lucas (J. Edgar), Ben Foster (Rampart), Aaron Eckhart (The Rum Diary), Richard Jenkins (The Rum Diary), James Badge Dale (Shame), Jeremy Irvine (War Horse), Alex Shaffer (Win Win)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life)
- Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method)
- Chloe Moretz (Hugo Cabret)
- Carey Mulligan (Drive)
- Evan Rachel Wood (The Ides of March)
Other Contenders: Marion Cotillard (Contagion), Gwyneth Paltrow (Contagion), Kate Winslet (Contagion), Robin Wright (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Bryce Dallas Howard (The Help), Allison Janney (The Help), Marisa Tomei (The Ides of March), Judi Dench (J. Edgar), Naomi Watts (J. Edgar), Patricia Clarkson (One Day), Sigourney Weaver (Rampart), Robin Wright (Rampart), Melanie Lynskey (Win Win), Amy Ryan (Win Win), Elizabeth Reaser (Young Adult)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- Young Adult
- The Tree of Life
- J. Edgar
- Win Win
- Shame
Other Contenders: The Beaver, Bernie, Certified Copy, Contagion, Haywire, Higher Ground, The Iron Lady, Larry Crowne, Meek’s Cutoff, Melancholia, Midnight in Paris, Rampart, Super 8, Tyrannosaur, While We’re Young
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- The Descendants
- One Day
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
- A Dangerous Method
- Moneyball
Other Contenders: The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn, Cars 2, The Help, Hugo Cabret, The Ides of March, Jane Eyre, On the Road, The Rum Diary, The Skin I Live In, Twixt Now and Sunrise, War Horse, We Bought a Zoo, We Need to Talk About Kevin, Wuthering Heights
Do you agree with the predictions? Are there any films or nominees you would add or remove from the list?