This is a story of the Lifetime Achievement Oscar (i.e. the “we feel badly that you haven’t won one yet and this performance was good enough to justify it” award) coming just one year too soon. Had Jeff Bridges forgone the award in 2010 for his noteworthy performance in Crazy Heart, he’d be running away with the award this year for his nostalgic, harrowing reunion with the Coen Brothers in True Grit. However, as it stands, the Bridges camp is deflated this awards season, perhaps wasting all their campaign effort last year or perhaps forfeiting so that others may have their chance.
Jesse Eisenberg‘s homage to Facebook founder Mark Zuckerburg in The Social Network had a head of steam going into the awards campaign, even earning the National Society of Film Critics Best Actor award. But that early momentum has appeared to fizzle, as The King’s Speech star Colin Firth has mostly taken the campaign by the reigns, with big, popular wins including The SAG, The Golden Globes, and the obvious victory at the Brit-friendly BAFTA. However, James Franco has been the beneficiary of a strong January campaign and is hosting the ceremony, forcing him into the minds of the voters, keeping Firth from running away with this.
Be wary of the sleeper in this category. Javier Bardem, for his performance in Biutiful, might not have the popular support given that he starred in a foreign film with a limited release, but similar arrangements have led to major upsets in the past (see Roberto Bengini and Marion Cotillard). It’s not an upset on which I would bet my life savings, but it certainly is a compelling storyline, and one that will keep him in the conversation.
Firth has the momentum and the popularity. The King’s Speech has been supremely popular over the last two months, and people are talking about this performance. The good money is on him at this point, and any deviation should be considered an upset. The weird thing about this race, however, is that each performance can make a strong case. Every contender has a scenario that sees him walking away with the award, which makes me unwilling to call this one in Firth’s bag. The most likely upset is probably Jesse Eisenberg holding on to some of the early season momentum, but Bardem may just steal the show. Moral of the story: don’t trust that this one is a foregone conclusion.
Who will win: Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
Who should win: Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Should have been nominated: Robert Duvall (Get Low)