UPDATE: View the 2011 Academy Award winners here.

The three major fall festivals have wrapped up, giving me an ideal opportunity to update my Oscar predictions. Over the course of the past month or so, both Danny Boyle‘s 127 Hours and Tom Hooper‘s The King’s Speech – which just won the audience award at Toronto – have received acclaim from almost all corners. Darren Aronofsky‘s Black Swan certainly lived up to its expectations, but its controversial territory makes it a question mark outside of Natalie Portman‘s firm status in the Best Actress category.

Nigel Cole‘s Made in Dagenham hasn’t made quite as much buzz as the aforementioned films, but the response to it has been steadily positive, especially with respect to lead actress Sally Hawkins. As you’ll recall, she was denied a nomination for her work in Happy-Go-Lucky, and that fact may help her end up on the right side of the coin this time around.

There is still speculation about the prospects of Ben Affleck‘s supremely impressive The Town. It could have a shot at a Best Picture nomination if it is supported by a solid campaign, but I think its lack of presence in other categories could hurt its chances. I can’t imagine what else the film would receive a nomination for outside of Best Picture.

One last piece of news worth mentioning is Sony Pictures Classics’ acquiring of Richard J. Lewis‘ Barney’s Version. Early word has it that both Paul Giamatti (Lead Actor) and Dustin Hoffman (Supporting Actor) have solid shots at nominations if Sony chooses to put together a sturdy campaign.

As always, my full list of projections can be found below. Click here if you would like to glance over my previous update.

BEST PICTURE

  1. The Social Network
  2. The King’s Speech
  3. Toy Story 3
  4. 127 Hours
  5. Another Year
  6. The Kids Are All Right
  7. True Grit
  8. The Fighter
  9. Love and Other Drugs
  10. Black Swan

Other Contenders: Blue Valentine, The Company Men, Conviction, Fair Game, Hereafter, Inception, Made in Dagenham, Never Let Me Go, Somewhere, The Town, The Way Back

BEST DIRECTOR

  1. David Fincher (The Social Network)
  2. Danny Boyle (127 Hours)
  3. Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
  4. Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (True Grit)
  5. David O. Russell (The Fighter)

Other Contenders: Mike Leigh (Another Year), Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), Clint Eastwood (Hereafter), Christopher Nolan (Inception), Lisa Cholodenko (The Kids Are All Right), Edward Zwick (Love and Other Things), Mark Romanek (Never Let Me Go), Sofia Coppola (Somewhere), Lee Unkrich (Toy Story 3), Peter Weir (The Way Back)

BEST ACTOR

  1. Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
  2. James Franco (127 Hours)
  3. Robert Duvall (Get Low)
  4. Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
  5. Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter)

Other Contenders: Paul Giamatti (Barney’s Version), Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine), Jake Gyllenhaal (Love and Other Drugs), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), Stephen Dorff (Somewhere)

BEST ACTRESS

  1. Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
  2. Lesley Manville (Another Year)
  3. Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
  4. Anne Hathaway (Love and Other Drugs)
  5. Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)

Other Contenders: Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine), Hilary Swank (Conviction), Naomi Watts (Fair Game), Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right), Sally Hawkins (Made in Dagenham), Carey Mulligan (Never Let Me Go), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  1. Christian Bale (The Fighter)
  2. Sam Rockwell (Conviction)
  3. Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
  4. Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
  5. Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)

Other Contenders: Vincent Cassel (Black Swan), Chris Cooper (The Company Men), Bill Murray (Get Low), Andrew Garfield (Never Let Me Go) Justin Timberlake (The Social Network), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Josh Brolin (True Grit)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  1. Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
  2. Miranda Richardson (Made in Dagenham)
  3. Elle Fanning (Somewhere)
  4. Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
  5. Bryce Dallas Howard (Hereafter)

Other Contenders: Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom), Barbara Hershey (Black Swan), Mila Kunis (Black Swan), Amy Adams (The Fighter), Keira Knightley (Never Let Me Go), Kristin Scott Thomas (Nowhere Boy), Dianne Wiest (Rabbit Hole), Rebecca Hall (The Town), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  1. The King’s Speech (David Speidler)
  2. The Kids Are All Right (Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko)
  3. Another Year (Mike Leigh)
  4. Inception (Christopher Nolan)
  5. The Fighter (Paul Attanasio, Lewis Colich, Eric Johnson, Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy)

Other Contenders: Black Swan (Mark Heyman), Blue Valentine (Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curtis, Cami Delavigne), The Company Men (John Wells), Hereafter (Peter Morgan), The King’s Speech (David Speidler), Made in Dagenham (Billy Ivory) Somewhere (Sofia Coppola)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  1. The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin)
  2. Toy Story 3 (Michael Arndt)
  3. 127 Hours (Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy)
  4. True Grit (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
  5. Love and Other Drugs (Marshall Herskovitz, Charles Randolph, Edward Zwick)

Other Contenders: Fair Game (Jez Butterworth, John Butterworth), How to Train Your Dragon (William Davies, Dean DeBlois, Chris Sanders), Never Let Me Go (Alex Garland), Rabbit Hole (David Lidsay-Abaire), The Way Back (Peter Weir), Winter’s Bone (Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, Daniel Woodrell),

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  1. 127 Hours (Enrique Chediak, Anthony Dod Mantle)
  2. True Grit (Roger Deakins)
  3. Inception (Wally Pfister)
  4. The Fighter (Hoyte Van Hoytema)
  5. The Way Back (Russell Boyd)

Other Contenders: Black Swan (Matthew Libatique), Get Low (David Boyd), Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I (Eduardo Serra), The King’s Speech (Danny Cohen), Never Let Me Go (Adam Kimmel), Shutter Island (Robert Richardson)

Do you agree with the predictions?

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