Every year there’s one Oscar category that boasts such an evident winner all season that it becomes almost morose to even speak about the subject. This year, comedienne Mo’Nique and her riveting turn as Mary Jones in Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire joins the ranks of Heath Ledger’s Joker, Helen Mirren’s Queen Elizabeth and Charlize Theron’s Aileen Wuornos as an undeniable awards juggernaut.

First making an appearance earlier last year during the Sundance Film Festival, Mo’nique’s turn was quickly touted as an Oscar contender. By the time Precious screened at the Toronto International Film Festival in September it was clear we had a winner on our hands. Despite some attempts to criticize the actress for her unwillingness to campaign (led mostly by Oscar blogger Tom O’Neil) and a few sparse wins for Anna Kendrick for Up In The Air nothing has dislodged Mo’Nique from inevitable Oscar glory.

The lively comedienne has such a lock on the award that it almost seems irrelevant to even discuss the other nominees. If anyone were to dethrone Mo’nique it would be Kendrick, who has managed to usurp a few awards from Mo’s steamroll to the Oscar podium. However, I wouldn’t bet on it. Kendrick and her Up In The Air costar Vera Farmiga join the ever growing ranks of double BSA nominees from one film (joining recent combos from Babel, Doubt and Gosford Park). Farmiga herself has been touted as deserving of Oscar recognition for the past few years and hopefully this notice will lead to more high profile roles for her, which she richly deserves.

The biggest surprise of the nominees is Maggie Gyllenhaal for her performance in Crazy Heart opposite Best Actor nominee (and likely winner) Jeff Bridges. Gyllenhaal didn’t receive any precursor awards for this role but, like Farmiga, has been on the Oscar bubble for years thanks to turns in small gems like Secretary and Sherrybaby.

Penelope Cruz’s nomination was less of a surprise if not completely undeserved. She managed to snag mentions from the Golden Globes and SAG prior to the critical trashing of her film, Nine. It was suspected that the Oscars, who nominate much later than these two organizations, wouldn’t have nominated her due to the poor reception of the film which failed to gain a Best Picture nomination despite the expanded 10 nominees. Cruz is a great actress but she can’t seem to branch out of the feisty/sexy/exotic roles that contain just enough prestige to secure her nominations.

With a surprise nomination for Gyllenhaal and an undeserving one for Cruz the obvious snub in this category went to Julianne Moore for her stylish turn in A Single Man. This could have been the actress’ fifth nomination and, due to Mo’Nique’s iron grip on the little gold man, she would have gone home Oscar-less once again. Perhaps sparing her the nomination and eventual loss can be seen as an act of mercy by the Academy. With glowing reviews for her work in the forthcoming The Kids Are Alright and Chloe, Moore should expect to be back to the Kodak Theater very soon.

Will Win: Mo’nique for Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire
Should Win: Mo’nique for Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire
Should Have Been Nominated: Julianne Moore for A Single Man

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