Best Actress is generally a showcase for both red carpet glamour and on-screen histrionics which naturally makes it my favorite Oscar category. Unlike many of the other acting contests, Best Actress can be just as much about the awards season narrative of a star as it is about the performance for which they are nominated. For instance, recent winners Kate Winslet and Sandra Bullock owe their wins more to their past losses (Winslet) and monstrous box office success (Bullock) than the caliber of their on-screen achievement. This year looks to be no different as professional narratives are again proving to be an important factor in deciding this race. This year’s crop of nominees are varied and represent the timeline of a Hollywood actress’ career from critical breakthrough (Lawrence) to the peak of stardom (Portman, Williams) and the continued success of strong talents (Kidman, Bening).

And, the nominees for Best Actress are:

Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)

Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)

Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)

Natalie Portman (Black Swan)

Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

As I’ve previously mentioned, Annette Bening, much like Winslet, is riding on her previous losses to garner significant Oscar consideration for her performance as a lesbian mother dealing with parenthood and infidelity in the indie comedy The Kids Are All Right. I’ve really come around to her performance and think it is easily her strongest nominated work but it is a shame that her co-star, Julianne Moore, who is equally good, isn’t along for the Oscar ride with her. Once poised for the win, it doesn’t look like Ms. Bening will emerge victorious this year. But the deafening talk surrounding her ‘dueness’ will surely lead her to another nomination, or perhaps she will join Glenn Close in the ‘always the bridesmaid’ club.

After winning an Oscar for her performance in The Hours, Nicole Kidman quickly emerged as the top star in Hollywood; commanding top dollar and first dibs on any script. With that star power, however, came a slew of box office duds (Stepford Wives, Bewitched) and crowd-unfriendly indie films (Dogville, Margot at the Wedding) and it looked like Kidman would never find her way back to the Kodak Theater. Despite bombing at the box office, Rabbit Hole has given Kidman the role she needed to land another nomination. Being a previous winner, the long sought-after nod is more than enough of a reward for the actress.

In the tradition of Melissa Leo for Frozen River and Julie Christie for Away From Her, Jennifer Lawrence emerged from Sundance with rave reviews and, despite Winter’s Bone being a small-scale success during its summer release, she’s managed to keep her buzz alive throughout the awards season. She gives a commanding performance and hopefully her nomination will lead to bigger and better things (although her follow up in X Men: First Class doesn’t provide much hope). Much like Kidman, her nomination is her reward and I wouldn’t expect her to emerge victorious against titans like Bening and Portman.

If you were to pinpoint the very definition of “Best Actress winner,” it would be Natalie Portman in Black Swan. She is within Hollywood’s definition of her prime (25-35), in a highly challenging performance that requires her to transform her body and she is able to hurl a barrage of emotions at the screen. Although I feel that Portman lucked out by getting a role that required her to be a limited actress attempting to be a great one, there is no denying that she will undoubtedly win the Oscar on Sunday.  For more on Ms. Portman and the potential Best Actress curse that may follow her win, consider reading my piece here.

Michelle Williams is, without a doubt, the greatest actress of her generation. From her ascension into prestige pictures with Brokeback Mountain to her criminally snubbed indie work in Wendy and Lucy, Williams has proven that she has a range of talents that put her in a class above the rest. Her surprise nomination for Blue Valentine is richly deserved and she is actually the best of the nominees, but it seems a bit premature to award her an Oscar when she is on the cusp of creating some very definitive work in the next few years. I wouldn’t be surprised if she is nominated again and wins as early as next year–provided that Meek’s Cutoff, My Date With Marilyn or Take This Waltz strike a chord with critics and audiences.

Will Win: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)

Should Win: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)

Should Have Been Nominated: Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right) and Halle Berry (Frankie and Alice)

Who do you think will take home the Oscar?

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