At last year’s Academy Awards, the evening’s biggest shocker came in the Best Adapted Screenplay category, with Geoffrey Fletcher and Precious playing spoiler to Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner‘s supreme frontrunner, Up in the Air. We have a relatively similar situation this year — The Social Network has been losing steam, and even if Aaron Sorkin‘s screenplay is lightyears ahead of his fellow nominees, momentum is critical in this game. The way I see it, though, Sorkin will almost assuredly earn the statue this time around because this year’s field doesn’t appear to have a Precious-like competitor that can knock him off. The nominees are:
127 Hours (Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy)
The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin)
Toy Story 3 (Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, Lee Unkrich)
True Grit (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen)
Winter’s Bone (Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini)
127 Hours was one of the more curious entries into this year’s awards season. Lead actor James Franco has always been a sure thing, but at one point, the film looked like a much stronger prospect in other primary fields, particularly with respect to Danny Boyle‘s status as a Best Director contender. Nevertheless, the film ultimately landed a healthy six nominations, including this one for its adapted screenplay. The work of Simon Beaufoy (an Oscar-winner for his Slumdog Millionaire script) and Boyle on the page has plenty of merit, but it remains the least-polished element in this technically-masterful production and, as with The Fighter, the screenplay is not what a viewer will most readily remember about the film. Boyle’s energetic, merciless direction, Franco‘s controlled, career-making performance and the Jon Harris editing are the elements that stand out the most, and, together, they’ll surely thrust the screenplay out of a legitimate shot at the win.
As is usually the case with a film that has stirred such prolific discussion, there’s not much to add to the conversation surrounding Sorkin’s year-best screenplay for The Social Network. And while his vision was undeniably aided by a first-rate director (David Fincher) and a group of performances that breathed energy and emotion into each word, the scribe’s 160-plus-page script stands on its own as a breeding ground of palpable dialogue and calculated structure. He’s been sweeping in the accolades all season long, and regardless of The Social Network‘s dimming momentum, not hearing Sorkin’s name on Oscar night would be a bewildering revelation.
The beloved Toy Story 3 is no doubt a critical favorite — and it probably rung true for a great deal of voters as well — but until the Academy shows that they’re willing to take animated films seriously in the major categories, there’s very little reason to predict that Michael Arndt and company have the support to pull off an upset. They should do just fine, though, with five total nominations and a nearly-sealed victory in the Best Animated Film category.
I was underwhelmed by the Coen Brothers‘ True Grit, but the Academy clearly wasn’t, as it rode the film’s critical support every step of the way. Garnered with 10 total nominations, the film is a certifiable favorite of the voters – it received two more nominations than The Social Network – and because of that Joel and Ethan Coen have the best chance of ruining Sorkin’s party. Although their work wasn’t revolutionary in any way (at least on the page), voters probably have a respect and admiration for the writing duo’s fierce loyalty to Charles Portis‘ original novel. And even if voters aren’t aware of that fact, they’re likely to dig the unique dialogue regardless.
Winter’s Bone, for me, felt like another overrated picture, though I’ll admit that Debra Granik is doing some interesting things behind the camera. Her cast, too, was up to the task, with Jennifer Lawrence and John Hawkes both earning Oscar nominations. But despite the impressive tally for this indie picture, it doesn’t look destined to land any victories on Oscar night. All four categories the film is nominated for are packed with more colorful, popular nominees, and it’s unlikely that, of all places, the film will sneak its way to a victory in this category.
Will Win: The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin)
Should Win: The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin)
Should Have Been Nominated: Barney’s Version (Michael Konyves)
Who do you think will take home the Oscar?