It’s time to finally end this sucker. With the Academy Awards this weekend after a month filled with coverage, who will come out on top?This is the first time since 1943 that the Academy has decided to nominate 10 films for the Best Picture award. Back then the winner was Michael Curtiz’s Casablanca, starring Humphrey Bogart and Ingrid Bergman. Fast forward 67 years, and the films nominated are:

Avatar (dir. James Cameron), The Blind Side (dir. John Lee Hancock), District 9 (dir. Neill Blomkamp), An Education (dir. Lone Scherfig), The Hurt Locker (dir. Kathryn Bigelow), Inglorious Basterds (dir. Quentin Tarantino), Precious (dir. Lee Daniels), A Serious Man (dir. Joel & Ethan Coen), Up (dir. Pete Docter), Up In The Air (dir. Jason Reitman).

With each nominee having their own personal reasons for being nominated it’s clear which of the films are the front runners this year and which are the “happy just to be nominated” padding. The competition is between Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air and Inglourious Basterds. The rest of the films have been great making it to the final ten but no one would disagree in saying that they are all just happy to get the free press to help boost DVD sales in a few months.

Avatar has been the talk of the internet since its release at the end of last year.  It went on to break every box office record that has ever been recorded domestically and internationally.  It was also the big winner at this year’s Golden Globe Awards, winning for Best Director as well as Best Motion Picture in the Dramatic category.

Up in the Air is Jason Reitman’s third feature film, and the second of his films to be nominated for the award (his first being Juno).  Up in the Air went on to win The Best Adapted Screenplay award at not only the Golden Globes but also at the BAFTAs.

Inglourious Basterds comes from the mind of Quentin Tarantino. It’s his sixth film of his writer/director career and his second film to be nominated for the Best Picture award at the Oscars — his first being Pulp Fiction in 1995.

The Hurt Locker is Kathryn Bigelow’s first film in her directorial career to be nominated for the most coveted Best Picture award from the Academy.  Being fresh off her win at the Director’s Guild of America puts The Hurt Locker as the front-runner to take the award.

The question that will be answered on the eve of March 7th is, will the Academy give the award to Avatar or The Hurt Locker? The answer to that question can be given through statistics.  It’s statistically proven that whichever film wins the top award from the Director’s Guild will win the Best Picture award at the Academy Awards.  In the last 60 years that the DGA has existed only 12 of those years have the DGA and the Academy disagreed on the best film of the year.  Therefore there’s a 8 out of 10 chance of The Hurt Locker winning the award for Best Picture after it won the DGA award earlier this year, and it seems unlikely that this year be an exception to the rule.

Who should win the award: The Hurt Locker

Who will win the award: The Hurt Locker

Who should have been nominated: Antichrist & Moon

Do you think the DGA has picked the winner already?